Doom & gloom entry

I started off the year by calling the economy "a$$". I have argued since the 2nd half of 2007 that the bailouts would only prolong this a$$ economy. While it is real hard to say with any certainty what will happen when a new Congress and President lead the country in 2009 I have to admit that even if they did everything right I still have a good chance of being right on this new prediction. Drum roll please!

The economy will be super-a$$ due to all the bailouts and most importantly the pending bailout of the US auto makers. With each new bailout, confidence further drops in the Gov't's ability to right the ship and the bailout of US auto makers will be the nail in the coffin. I have yet to meet anyone who supports that bailout (US auto makers) but the Liberals won Congress & the White House on the backs of the Unions so I will be SHOCKED if that bailout doesn't take place. Plus, what logical justification can one give why you bailout one industry and not the other or one company and not the other??

And when I say super-a$$ I mean everything but Depression Era which translates into the economy being worse than everything seen in the US between now and the Great Depression. And now for an ounce of perspective for those who think the worse is behind us.

From a market investment perspective the Great Depression lasted much longer than the ten years (1929-1939) your history book dictates:
Day 1 (9/3/1929): Pre-crash high (381).
7 weeks later (10/24/1929): Black Thursday-- crash begins (300).
3 years later (7/8/1932): Crash low (41).
25 years later (11/23/1954): Pre crash high attained (381).

While I don't believe cycles last that long today I do think that even a fifth (5 years which also happens to be my estimate for this downturn, plus or minus 2 years) of that 25yr period listed above would be much more than the average person thinks this downturn would last. I hope you note this blog entry and use it to call me a fool if it turns out I am wrong. Oh what a happy fool I would be in that case.

So, Obama won

And what does that mean to someone who is a conservative like myself? Well, guess what? He made a blanket call to us conservatives post election and said the following in his unique Obama voice:

I know you're out there. I can feel you now. I know that you're afraid. You're afraid of us. You're afraid of change. I don't know the future. I didn't come here to tell you how this is going to end. I came here to tell you how it's going to begin. I'm going to hang up this phone, and then I'm going to show these people what you don't want them to see. I'm going to show them a world... without you. A world without rules and controls, without borders or boundaries. A world where anything is possible. Where we go from there is a choice I leave to you.

I actually recorded the message if you want to listen to it. Sort of freaked me out. :)

WiFi & coffee using loose change?

Of course, I had to make it a 9 (my favorite number) step process:

1. Label an old empty jar, "WiFi & coffee"
2. At the end of every day, dump all your loose change into the "WiFi & coffee" jar
3. After you have built up about an inch or two of loose change in jar, locate your nearest Coinstar that converts your loose change to a Starbucks card
4. Convert your loose change to a Starbucks card
5. Register for your Starbucks Rewards
6. Register for your 2 hours free WiFi per day
7. Keep Starbucks card in your wallet
8. Next time you need some free WiFi (up to 2 hours per day) just stop at the nearest Starbucks. You also get benefits such as free beverage customizations and free refills on brewed coffee when you make purchases using your card
9. Keep REFILLING your Starbucks card whenever you get an inch or two of loose change in jar at nearest Coinstar.

Too busy for a posting?

You know, sometimes it is what it looks like. My friends, I have been too busy watching my investments evaporate to post. I have been too busy making sure that I am well suited to weather this economic storm that we are in. But I figured I could at least take some time to pat myself on the back for equipping you to handle these uncertain times.

Here was my attempt at leading by example in 2008:

1. I am the guy who canceled his cable bill back in March saving himself about $100/month. Yeah, I miss HBO & ESPN. But every day when I see the market crash even further it feels good knowing that my canceled cable bill is building a nice cushion of cash in my ING account.

2. I cancelled Netflix too. Well, I put it on hold a little after my blog about Redbox saving myself roughly $10/month. However, I still get my 4 movies per month via Redbox's free Monday rentals.

3. I took my own advice shoring up my short term reserves, paying off all interest bearing debt, and continuing to max out funding for my retirement in both a Roth IRA & 401K account.

4. I am not mistaking the cost of high living with the high cost of living either. No more rich steakhouses for me. :(

5. I continue to invest in me. I am still in school which is one of the reasons why I haven't been blogging as frequently and remain very keenly clued in to the events taking place around me.

6. And last but not least, I am sticking with my stated goals. I refuse to let Mr. Market and all his thrashing about get me SCURRED into converting my investments to cash. I have a well balanced diversified portfolio that should rebound with the market long before I reach the legal age for retirement. But just to be on the safe side, I have been buying a $1 MegaMillion lotto ticket every time I get gas. :)

What, you don't agree with my lotto dreams? Hey, everyone needs a backup plan.

PS: My prediction about state bankruptcies has already started with both mASS and CA already requesting loans from the Federal Gov't. Also, props to both Patterson and Bloomberg of NY and NYC respectively for getting their red pens out and slashing their budgets. Even though the writing is clearly on the wall it is not often folks act on it.

The Giant Pool of Money

So every day some new development happens on Wall Street and folks are asking for my opinion. Look, I gave my opinion this time last year when the bailouts were in the form of interest rate cuts. But nobody listened then so why would they now? And what good is my opinion now anyway? It would be the equivalent of saying the ship is sinking at the point of total submersion.

In any case, here is my headline for next year: Avoiding bankruptcy will be the name of the game for lots of state governments starting with New York.

But in the meantime and between time I offer the following audio content that is the most comprehensive and far reaching take on how we got where we are today. Hey, I highly recommend you listen, I mean do you really think this is over?

The Giant Pool of Money
by Chicago Public Radio

Couple of ways to get this program:
1. You can listen for free by clicking "Full Episode" below the picture of the money.
2. You can download the transcript.
3. You can buy the podcast for $0.95.
4. You can buy the CD.

F-R-E-E that spells free...

Even better than that little jingle that is now STUCK IN YOUR HEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF YOUR DAY is the following deal that will make you sing it with pride.

Free credit score monitoring from Trans Union for 6 or 9 months depending on your preference. While I have never been a big fan of class action lawsuits this one is somewhat acceptable in that you get a service that may be of great use to you. I cut and pasted the 6 or 9 month options below but I strongly recommend you read all about it URL below where you can also register if you so decide. To be eligible you must register before 9/24/2008.

http://www.listclassaction.com/

***6 OR 9 MONTH OPTIONS***
You have two options for credit monitoring:(1) Get six months of free credit monitoring services (which retails for $59.75) that includes: (a) the ability to lock your credit report so third parties, such as lenders or other companies, will not be able to access your credit report without your consent (unless allowed by law); (b) unlimited daily access to your Trans Union credit report and credit score; and (c) credit monitoring with a 24-hour email credit notification service.
OR
(2) Get nine months of enhanced credit monitoring services (which retails for $115.50) that includes all the services listed above, plus a suite of insurance scores (which allows you to see your credit information as insurance companies do) and a mortgage simulator service (a customized report that shows the mortgage rates that you should qualify for). If you choose this option you will agree to give up your right to sue the Defendants for certain damage claims (see Question 15) and you will give up your right to receive a cash payment, if any, from the Settlement Fund.
******

PS: Pull it up and forward it back my selecta , "F-R-E-E, that spells Free---CreditReport.com, BABY!"

Back & forth with the Movie Snob

So after receiving my free movie code from Big Red yesterday I couldn't decide on what movie I should get. So I went on to the website and figured I would just get the highest rated movie that they had available using ratings from Da Flix. And as I suspected some touchy-feely movie was the highest rated. But what surprised me the most was that a friend of mine who THINKS he is the biggest movie snob ever had rated this chick-flick 3 stars (Da Flix allows you to share your viewing history and ratings). Instantly I now wanted to watch it because at the very least I can now make fun of him for the girly-man that he is.

I get home and pop the movie on and instantly kicked off a text message discussion with the Movie Snob that went exactly like this:

Troy: Watching ur touchy-feely movie (Definitely, Maybe) with Van Wilder trying to act a serious role. Of course u only watched it because Lil Miss Sunshine is in it. And we know how much you love that movie.

Movie Snob: Dude I never recommended that movie. It was ok but it's a movie I would not recommend.

Troy: Never said u recommended. But on Da Flix you rated it 3 stars. That pretty much means u r gay.

Movie Snob: You know how I know you're gay? Cause you're watching it.

Troy: U know how I know ur gay? U watched Brokeback Mountain 3 times when Heath Ledger died crying uncontrollably.

Movie Snob: You know how I know you're gay? Cause you know who starred in Brokeback Mountain.

Troy: U know how I know ur gay? Little Miss Sunshine is ur favorite movie of all time.

Movie Snob: You know how I know you're gay? You're using text language like a 15 year old girl.

Troy: U know how I know ur gay? U said, "no he didn't" when Van Wilder told April she should go to "life rehab" in the movie Definitely, Maybe.

Movie Snob: You know how I know you're gay? You know the name of the characters.

Troy: U know how I know ur gay? When Scarlett Johansson got engaged to Van Wilder u were truly happy for them saying and I quote, "don't they make a cute couple."

Movie Snob: You know how I know you're gay? You didn't like Harold & Kumar 2 because of the bottomless female nudity.

Troy: U know how I know ur gay? U LOVED Harold & Kumar 2 because of the bottomless MALE nudity.

Movie Snob: You know how I know you're gay? Life is Beautiful is your favorite movie.

Troy: U know how I know ur gay? U cried when April got the book & told Van Wilder to leave in your girly-movie.

Movie Snob: You know how I know you're gay? You wear Jim Jones jeans.

Troy: U know how I know ur gay? U wear Rip Hamilton jerseys with matching headband & face mask.

Movie Snob: You know how I know you're gay? You don't like the NBA anymore because they wear long shorts now.

Troy: U know how I know ur gay? U downloaded the soundtrack for Definitely, Maybe to ur top 25 tunes on ur gaypod.

Movie Snob: You know how I know you're gay? You saw High School Musical in iMAX.

Troy: U know how I know ur gay? U only go to the indie artsy movie theaters.

Movie Snob: You know how I know you're gay? You told me I had to see, PS: I Love You in iMAX

Troy: U know how I know ur gay? After seeing Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants you tried to swap ur jeans with ur other gay friends.

Movie Snob: You know how I know you're gay? Your favorite NFL player is Willis Mc-GAY-hee.

Troy: OUCH, I'm going to remember that one. U know how I know ur gay? Your favorite cartoon character is Mr(s). Garrison.

Movie Snob: You know how I know you're gay? YOU WRITE LITTLE GIRLY-MAN STORIES ON THAT GAY BLOG OF YOURS THINKING IT MAKES YOU COOL!!!

Troy: OK, you know what? I'm taking that last one personal. I mean, having a blog doesn't make someone gay. Straight people have blogs too. I mean, not that being gay is a bad thing...